Notes from Adapt by Tim Harford, Part 2

Soros (not in the book): case of Adapt.

Try many hypothesis.

See which one survive.

Cut losses on failures. Ensure that failures do not kill you.

Bet heavily on winners.

Soros -- market is a succession of falsehoods.

Notes from Adapt by Tim Harford, Part 1

Question yourself. Everyone makes mistakes

I am not a failure, but I made a mistake.

Create validation squad -- frens that back you, but also tell you the true feedback.

Self-validate: Check your ideas/words a few weeks later.

Ask what may happen if I am wrong, and how can I test my idea/hypothesis?

Asset Evaluation

What is the asset quality?

What income stream can this asset produce?

What risk are you bearing?

Is the CEO with you or against you?

Smart people accepts; Idiots resist